In the next few weeks, global oil consumption will reach 100 million barrels per day. This will be more than double the 50 years ago. And yet there are no direct signals that would begin to fall. Despite the evidence of climate change caused by carbon dioxide and billions in support of alternative energy sources, oil is so rooted in the modern world that its demand continues to grow by as much as 1.5 percent a year, Reuters reports.
So far there is no consensus on when demand for oil is on the rise. However, it is clear that this will mainly depend on how governments respond to global warming. This reported the International Energy Agency (IEA), which advises Western economies on their energy policy.
The crucial role ol plays in transport. Of the nearly 100 million barrels of oil consumed daily, more than 60 million are coming here. Alternative propulsion systems, such as battery powered electric cars, have only a very small market share. Most of the remaining oil is then used for the production of plastics and in the petrochemical industry. There are few options to replace this raw material.
Despite government pressure to limit oil, gas and coal consumption, consumption is not going to stop, and few analysts believe oil demand will fall in the next decade. The IEA is rather expecting that, while maintaining the current state of global oil demand, growth will be at least over the next 20 years and sometimes around 125 million barrels per day.
Demand is no longer developed by economies
Growth could be slower if governments have put in place already announced plans to limit the use of carbon-based fuels, the IEA said. At the same time, however, he warns that the current plans do not seem to significantly reduce carbon emissions, and only a complete change in energy use can reduce demand for oil.
Growing oil use is no longer primarily responsible for the countries IEA advises on. Demand in large developed economies stagnates. On the contrary, it is rising rapidly in countries that are not members of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), where it has almost doubled over the past two decades. It may be for the development of new industries in Asia, Central and South America and Africa.
Some analysts argue that demand for oil could fall faster if the sale of classic cars and the share of electric cars on the market could be reduced and economic growth and fuel prices could be reduced.
Goldman Sachs says oil hunger could reach peak in some conditions in 2024. Slow adoption of new technologies in less developed countries, however, will delay this deadline.
The consulting firm Wood Mackenzie is somewhere in the middle. He expects demand in transport to cease to grow sometime in 2030 and overall will reach the peak in 2036. However, chief economist Ed Rawle argues that the decline in demand for oil will come, whatever happens. “Signs of the peak demand for oil in the future are really there. It is only a question of when, not of whether, “he says.